Armed with federal bailout money and bankruptcy reprieves, they rushed headlong into the Chinese adventures - after all, the former Emperor ofĬhina is said to have loved Buicks. General Motors believed that they would be the big winner in China. The opening of China as a consumer market looked (looks) promising, but financial complications, political considerations, and intense competition to working with and in a communist dictatorship have dulled the Unfortunately, magic wands and Aladdin's lamps are in very short supply. There has to be a totally revolutionary, life-changing, hair-restoringly wonderful, fountain-of-youth transformative event. New audio systems won't be enough reason to stimulate theĬhange new upholstery fabrics won't do it re-designed LED headlights are not the seismic innovation that cause millions of vehicle owners to literally abandon their fully-functioning automobiles for something The only way to accomplish this is if a significant part of the existing on-road fleet changes out over each year. and other traditional markets to increase 50%,ġ00%, 200% per year, year-to-year. They need something that breaks sales out of the rut it's been in. Median and average sales per year stayed at a littleĪutomakers need a paradigm shift, they need a windfall. As the graph below (from ) shows, new vehicle sales remained in the same annual range. New light vehicle sales have stayed pretty much the same. population increasing by about 50% from 1976 to today, They've been stagnant for nearly half a century. New light-vehicle sales (cars, pick-ups, SUVs, and vans) are stagnant. Why, you may ask? FROM THE AUTOMAKER'S PERSPECTIVE (Based on my study and business experience)
These engines will still require a liquid fuel for a long time.īut knowing that an electric vehicle future is not just around the corner has not dissuaded automakers or the oil industry from participating in the deception.
Stationary internal combustion engines will be with us for a long time. They know that there's nothing wrong with the internal combustion engine (ICE), and that regardless of all the electric car hysteria, mobile and The oil industry has played their hand a little cooler. If you missed these gloomy revelations it's probably because they're buried by an avalanche of overly-optimistic, un-realistic proclamations of an electric vehicle future just Some astute people in the oil industry and the automobile industry know this, as evidenced by the sporadic pessimistic, yet realistic assessments from automakers that have snuck out over the Solution or Diversion." The premise of this insightful piece, which bothīob and I have referred to many times since, is that personal electric vehicles are not, and will not, be ready for mass private ownership for a long time - a few decades, maybe the better part of a century, In December 2009, my business partner, Bob Gordon, wrote an editorial for titled "Electric Vehicles, We don't need another stinking diversion from the real thing!
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